What is the Umbrella Revolution?

What is Happening in Hong Kong

Right now Hong Kong is shut down by approx. 80,000 protesters who want a more Democratic Hong Kong.

What's the Context?

Hong Kong is different to all other Chinese Cities with the possible exception of Macau. Hong Kong wasn't founded by China. Hong Kong was founded by the British as naval base and trading city during the 1^st Opium war and Hong Kong Island was officially ceded to Britain in 1842.

The British ran Hong Kong pretty much as a benevolent dictatorship until the handover back to China in 1997, but they planted 2 booby traps for the Chinese to Negotiate.

The first was the stipulation that Hong Kong would be run separately as a Special Administrative Region. (This is often shortened to the mantra of “1 Country, 2 Systems”)This would ensure the framework for the second .

In 1994 the final Governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten introduced Democracy to Hong Kong through broad reforms of Local Councils, Municipal Councils and the Legislative Council. These councils were to be elected by universal suffrage.

This horrified the Chinese Government in Beijing who were powerless at the time to stop them. Even now China feels constrained in it's dealing with Hong Kong because Hong Kong is the 8th largest economy in the world, a financial Hub only behind New York and London, which requires freedom to trade and make money, but also because China's biggest foreign policy goal is the return of Taiwan (a western style democracy which broke away in a civil war). China's Government seem to feel that anything too heavy handed done in Hong Kong could scare off the Taiwanese for good.

Who's Upset and Why?

The chief executive of Hong Kong C Y Leung has announced his intention to Vet all candidates before the upcoming 2017 Legislative Council election. This upset the uni students(Yes it's always the uni students) who were already protesting Education reforms. It brought them to the streets. Then the 'Occupy Central' movement (the local Occupy branch) threw their weight behind the protests.

From here the protests seemed to have gained mass appeal tapping into a growing cynicism about the “1 Country 2 Systems” framework Beijing has set up. It seems many businesses are on side as well. Most businesses want free government that will set the rules and then get out of the way.

Do they have a symbol?

This is known as “Umbrella Uprising”. Referencing the fact that umbrellas are used as protection fom the sun (It's hot in Hong Kong right now), from the Tear Gas that the police have thrown, and that the symbol for umbrella in chinese in made up of the people.

What are the Risks for Beijing?

                1. Beijing is secretly terrified that these protests will spread to the rest of China.  No-one in the Government is unaware of the Tiannamen Square crisis and how close that came to bringing down the government.

                2. Taiwan- The Eyes of the world are on this protest. Taiwan is a free western style democracy. If they see Democracy put down brutally public opinion will turn against China and Taiwan may never join.

                3. Trade. Hong Kong is a massive economy and unlike Shanghai remarkably corruption free. Any threat to the Hong Kong Market is a threat to China itself.

Whats Going to Happen Now?

There are 3 options:

1. The protest peters out
2. Beijing and CY Leung back down and allow free and fair elections
3. The protesters are removed by force

What's your Guess?

Option 3 I'm afraid.