Donald Trump and the GOP

The Fight for the Soul of Conservatism

Donald Trump. No name is more divisive in the 21^st century than his. He terrifies and titillates in equal measure. To the Ruling Elite Wall St Bankers he is a dangerous populist. To Social conservatives he is an immoral threat. To Neoconservatives he's a naive isolationist. How did it come to this?

The modern Republican Party consists of three main voting blocks governed by their different ideologies.

First are the real power behind the Republicans, Corporate America. Corporate America has one policy goal. To lower taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. It's a goal they has been wildly successful at.

The second member of the triumvirate are Social Conservatives. These people are extremely concerned with issues such as Abortion and Same Sex Marriage. This group are willing to throw their not inconsiderable weight behind anyone who will back "Pro Life" positions.

Lastly we have the Foreign Policy Hawks or Neoconservatives. These militarists will back anyone who will assert American Power in the world. They are somewhat out of favour after the debacle of the Iraq war and there is a great deal of crossover between them and Corporate America, given that defense companies influence this group a great deal.

Any Republican Presidential candidate in the USA has to appease these three groups in order to be endorsed as the Republican nominee. Until now.

Inequality is rampant in the USA. Minimum wage in the USA is extremely low compared to other developed countries. The median wage has barely changed since 1973. All this has created a world where the vast majority of the population are doing worse than their parents and grandparents were.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/map-us-ranks-near-bottom-on-income-inequality/245315/

The 2007 Global Financial Crisis coming hard on the heals of a costly, lengthy war has created a deeply angry populace ready and willing to try something outside the box.

Into this milieu steps Donald Trump. His promise is very specific. To "Make America Great Again". Pundits (myself included) massively underestimated the appeal of this message. But we shouldn't have. With hindsight the signs were there all along.

Trump gave voters something to grab a hold of. When he said "America doesn't win anymore." many people looked at their surroundings and agreed.

Furthermore Trump gave people a reason for their problems and a solution. If you are afraid of crime. It's because of Mexican immigrants. We'll fix it by building a wall. If you are afraid of terrorism, its Obama's softness on Foreign policy. Ill kill ISIS's families. (which would be a war-crime). Lost your job? It's because of China. I'll stand up for you.

It's no wonder Trump is popular. He has simply identified the problems ordinary Americans are facing and offered to solve them. That is something that mainstream Republicans can't do because they are beholden to Corporate America to lower wages and lower taxes. The policies of Corporate America in government (They own the Democrats just as much as the Republicans) have caused the very anxiety Trump is tapping into.

That's why Trump supporters when asked will usually site the fact that Trump is an outsider with an independent source of money for his campaign. He has perfected the art of separating himself from the New York Corporate Elite, while actually being part of the New York Corporate Elite.

It's also why sighting facts to Trump supporters won't work. There is a perception that the Corporate Elite fear a Trump presidency because he is on the average person's side and attack him mercilessly. Therefore any attack on Trump is viewed through this prism. The more people attack Trump, the more this perception is reinforced, the more popular he becomes.

This leads us to the Republican Convention. Trump is on track to win a majority of the 2472 Convention delegates. If he does I'm sure the Republican Party will nominate him, but if he does not win 1237 delegates the party will do a deal to ensure that all of the non Trump delegates vote for someone other than Trump. That will most likely be Ted Cruz, but it's by no means certain.

If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Trump, I expect riots. It will be viewed by Trump supporters as the Republican party keeping the good honest Americans down.

I feel sure that the Socially Conservative wing of the party could swallow it's pride and support Trump. They will side with him against Hillary Clinton.

The Neocon's have been somewhat dismayed by what they have heard from Trump. Trump has expressed skepticism over NATO, leading The Weekly Standard (The Neoconservative publication of Record) to publically muse about a third party candidate.

What does it all mean?

Let's be clear about Trump. The man is a charlatan. He incites people by stirring the baser elements of the human condition. Sexism, racism, fear, anger and xenophobia are all part of his shtick.

But Trump has tapped into something real. There are real issues here that are not being addressed. The Neoliberal market first approach has resulted in rising inequality and a decline in the standard of living for the average person on the street. There is a real risk of dangerous instability in the American political system which will continue until inequality returns to more reasonable levels for a first world nation.