Donald J Trump has taken office as the forty fifth President of the United States. Many people are concerned for the future. Conversations often turn to impeachment of the President.
Is it possible that Trump will be bought down in his first term? Yes.
Is it probable that Trump will be brought down in his first term? Less So. Here are two scenarios and my completly arbitary percentage of likelyhood to happen.
1) Early succesful Impeachment.
Trump could be impeached for a variety of reasons.
a) The Emoluments Clause
The American Constitution contains a clause often know as the emoluments clause. The aim of which is to stop corruption by forbidding Representatives, Senators and employees of the executive government from holding other offices or being rewarded by foreign Governments.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-emoluments-clause_us_58794852e4b09281d0eaf212
Trump is clearly in violation of this clause so he has decided that it doesnt apply to the President. It's possible the Supreme Court would agree. But it's possible it would find against Trump too.
b) Racketeering
Trump University was anything but. It was a cynical, likely illegal enterprise to fleece poor people of their money. At least one legal professor believes it could be used to mount a case against President Trump.
http://q13fox.com/2016/11/10/university-of-utah-finds-legal-case-to-impeach-donald-trump/
Many of Trump's multitude of legal proceedings coule be used to initiate his impeachment.
In that case Congress would have to muster the political will to impeach the president. For that to be the case Trump would have to be an extreme political liability to the Republican Congress.
That is possible, but unlikely that this get so bad they throw Trump under the bus and turn to Mike Pence.
However the incoming President with the lowest approval rating in the modern era means that an unpopular President Trump is a high probability. But impeachment is a low probability before the mid-term 2018 elections.
10% possibility.
2)Impeachment after 2018.
Far more likely than the early impeachment, this scenario relys on an unpopular Trump Presidency sweeping the Democrats to a powerful position in Congress. That the impeachment would likely need a few Republicans would not be a major challenge given that more than a few Congressional Republicans would love to take a swipe at Trump if he were vulnerable.
This scenario is much more realistic I give it 30% possibility.
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