Who can
save the Republicans?
Last week
in the build up to the 1st set of Republican Debates I
opined that the American Right have tied themselves a Gordian Knot.
The Gordian Knot was tied by the king of Phyrigia. Whoever untied the
knot would be king of Phyrgia. This mythical knot was impossible to
undo. However when Alexander the Great arrived in Phrygia he simply
pulled out his sword and cut the knot. It's a metaphor for lateral
thinking. It applies to the Republican Party in the 2016 election.
Remember
that this party has won one presidential election legitimately since
1988. That of 2004. And that was during a time of war. In 2000 Al
Gore won both the popular vote and after all the votes were counted
in Florida won that state, but Florida's Supreme Court (installed by
Bush's brother) ruled that counting was to stop before all votes were
counted.
Basically
there are 3 factors stopping the Republican Party adapting to a
changing and latinising America.
- The Echo Chamber:
It has been
consistently shown that people who watch Fox News are far more likely
to be badly informed and factually wrong. Of course it isn't just Fox
News, the radio is full of conservative Rush Limbaugh wannabes
reverberating to whatever tune the echo chamber is singing today.
Sadly this
applies to lawmakers as well as voters. Witness Mitt Romney repeat
Fox News talking points about Benghazi as fact in the 2012
presidential debates and feel the cold sting of reality seconds
later.
- Gerrymandering:
The
Republican voter lives in this Republican Echo Chamber. The continued
Gerrymandering of seats by both Republican and Democratic Parties
means that Republican House members almost all sit in safe districts,
which means they cant lose to Democrats, but they can lose their seat
to other Republicans. Other Republicans who live in a fact averse
echo chamber. This ultimately pushes the party to the right far beyond
the American populace.
- Free Trade Effect
As America
pursues Economic Liberalism and worldwide level playing field it's
workers wages have not grown in real world terms in 40 years. The
Republicans white working class core voter has not done well under
this regime. Bad times always push voters to the political right. A
right wing fact averse echo chamber tells them who to blame. Pushing
them furthor right. They then reinforce the feedback those in the
echo chamber recieve and the whole process becomes a vicious cycle.
The problem
for the Republican Party is that these factors are driving them
further and further from the American mainstream.
Fox News is
a money making concern and lobbying tool. If you think Rupert
Murdoch's thinking about whats best for America you're sadly
mistaken. Everything he does is for Rupert Murdoch and News
Corporation.
Back to
the Gordian Knot
Republicans
are watching the country they know and love slip slowly away from
them. It's a distressing feeling. Every elections minorities become
more and more powerful. The voting power of non whites increased from
24% to 26% between the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections. Women
make up 50% of the population, but Republicans struggle to speak to
minorities and women.
Last
presidential election Republican Candidates failed atrociously to
speak about women and minorities. Watch Todd Aitkin completely blunder
his way through this interview and talk about "Legitimate Rape"
whatever that is and completely fails to understand biology, seemingly
believing in magic vaginas.
Who can
Untie the Gordian Knot?
While this
far right culture predominates in the Republican Party the party
itself will continue to dominate the mid-terms, but completely fail to
win the Presidency. What is needed is a new type of Republican who
can carry the bulk of the party, but bring large numbers of women
and minorities back to the party of Abraham Lincoln. Then the established party needs to accept these new
recruits. This needs to happen, because a 2 party democracy with only 1
healthy party leads to an unhealthy country.
.
Roger
Ailes-Losermaker
It was
notable that Fox News chose the 10 candidates in the 1st
debate. The debate's, makeup was ultimately chosen by Roger Ailes, the
head of Fox News. Fox of course is seen as a natural home for the
Republican Party Debate. But Fox News will lose out if someone breaks
the echo chamber. They have no incentive to back reasonable
candidates and every incentive to ensure the status quo. While the
candidates in the debate were fairly chosen, they included 2 former
Fox talking heads and did not include Carly Fiorina, who's
performance on the under-card debate might just have won her promotion
to prime time for next time
Carly
Fiorina
Carly
Fiorina performed well during the under-card debate, which Fox happily
filmed inside an empty stadium to make these candidates look
irrelevant. Despite that, Carly Fiorina (ex Hewlett Packard) exec.
might be the one able to move the Republican Party back into health.
Hopefully as a no-nonsense businesswoman, she recognises an
echo-chamber when she see's one.
Marco
Rubio
Marco Rubio
performed well enough in the debate to earn a slot in the next one.
As a Cuban American, he might just have the lightness of touch to
bring Latino's in without alienating the party establishment.
As for the
rest.....not an original thought amongst them. None of them will beat
Clinton next year. None of those can untie this knot.
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