Why the
Republican Party Can't Win
I have a
confession to make. I'm a political junkie. I find the world around
me and the people in it endlessly fascinating. Trying to understand
why our society is the way it is keeps me up at night. Then there are
the things that bring me joy. One of those is about to begin.
The debates
between candidates for the Republican party nomination begin on
August 6th. It's a circus. It's like watching the a train
crash in slow motion. This year we have the clown in chief (Donald
Trump) who will be trying to out wacky some of weirdest and wackiest
candidates the Grand Old Party (GOP) have ever thrown together.
The
contrast between the Republican debates and the Democratic debates is
as fascinating as it is informative. Democratic debates are filled
with sensible earnest looking people putting on their serious face
and explaining how their 4,500 page tax plan is the good for the
nation. Republicans on the other hand will just scream that the
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) who collects tax is in everybody's face and when elected President I'll abolish it. And the crowd goes
wild!
As amusing
as it is, it's indicative of a larger fact. Republican's cant win.
The most obvious reason, is that American demographics have changed
and are continuing to change. Since 1992 Republican candidates have
legitimately won one election presidential election. That of 2004. The
election of 2000, was so close, that it was called before all the
votes were counted. It turns out, that after all the votes were
counted, Al Gore, not George Bush won the state of Florida and
therefore should have been declared president. 2004 was an anomaly
due to the Iraq war.
How did
it come to this?
America
continues to diversify. In the 2012 presidential election 26.3 % of
voters were non-white, up 2 % from 2008.. That doesn't sound like
much, but consider that Obama won that particular segment by 80% -
17% for Mitt Romney and you can see that the GOP has a real problem.
In fact after the 2012 election defeat the Republican National
Committee (RNC) postmortem
opened with the words:
“The
definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over again
and expecting different results."
Sadly
nothing has changed since 2012.
Immigration
Latino (or
Spanish speaking) voters are the second largest minority in the USA
after African Americans. They make up 20 million eligible voters.
They tend to be 1st or 2nd generation immigrants to
america. The immigration programme is something they're quite
familiar with. When Republican candidates talk about immigration,
however they tend to do so in unflattering terms. Such as:
" When
Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re
not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people
that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems
with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re
rapists." -
Donald
Trump June 2015
Insanity
While
it's obvious to anyone that insulting the voters you need for the
general election is insane, it has to be done. The reason is that of
course anyone running a line that is remotely palatable to voters in
the general election simply can't win the Republican Party
nomination.
But
Why?
I
think there are a 3 major reasons for this. The first we'll call the
Echo Chamber Effect.
Echo
Chamber Effect?
One
of the most unexpected effects of the information revolution was the
echo chamber effect. People were now free to gain information about
the world around them from only the sources they believed in. People
no longer sat down together to watch the evening news. News could be
had from anywhere and from anyone. People didn't choose the
mainstream media anymore, they wanted news they agreed with all the
time.
This
was the perfect time for Rupert Murdoch to start Fox News. Fox News
is the most brazen partisan news organisation there has been, and
probably ever will be. Fox News truly lives in an alternate universe
where Barack Obama is a communist born in Kenya. They employ circular
logic to brainwash viewers in exactly the same way a cult does. Any
information (such as this blog) that does not agree with Fox is a
product of the evil liberal media. Therefore it is rejected, which
feeds the belief in Fox and the conservative media.
Amusingly
(and frighteningly) it isn't just voters who become brainwashed by
this nonsense. Karl Rove simply refused to believe Obama had been
elected in 2012. Why? All the polls pointed to a Romney win. This doesn't make sense. Except it makes perfect sense, because Fox was
lying about the polls and had been for months. His meltdown is
amusing in a sad kind of way and you can watch it here:
Powerful
Republicans are just as likely to fall into this alternate universe
as the white working class voters who make up the majority of their
constituency. It's an Orwellian place where facts have no meaning, change constantly or are ignored if not helpful to the republican
cause. But the biggest problem about the echo chamber, is that Republicans have started to believe their own propaganda.
The
Gerrymander Effect?
The USA has
no independent umpire when it comes to drawing electoral boundaries.
Gerrymandering is drawing the political boundaries for political
gain. The original Gerrymander was enacted by Massachusetts
Governor Elbridge Gerry in 1812 and looked like a salamander.
What
happens is that both parties get together to group all voters of one
party together to create a safe seat. Both party's benefit from this
practice by reducing the amount of seats "in play" so that
finite party resources can be spent on fewer and fewer marginal
districts. Unfortunately in the USA today the House of Representatives
has extremely few contested districts.
The average
Congressman sits in a very safe seat. The public are extremely unlikely
to throw him or her out. On the other hand, they must listen very
closely to those in their party. If they become unpopular, they will
lose the right to stand for their party. Their party who are caught
up in this alternate universe where reality and facts do not tread.
It leads to Congressman denouncing global warming as a devious plot
designed to bring back socialism or whatever claptrap the echo
chamber is reverberating with today. I would like to remind you that
these people make policy decisions that effect not just America but
their footprint echos throughout the 7.3 BILLION humans on planet
Earth.
Free Trade
Effect
Republican
voters in America today tend to be the lesser educated manual
laborers. Salt of the Earth people like miners, plumbers and
manufacturing workers. These are the people who have suffered from
overseas competition. Competition from economies that have far lower
wages.. Real wages among the working and middle class in America
haven't risen in 40 years.
It's always
during difficult economic times that the far right raises its ugly
head. As Americans lives fail to get better, people need someone to
blame. According to the right wing eco-chamber it's Obama. But of
course it's also immigration.
The
American right has tied a Gordian Knot for itself. To break out of
the echo chamber is damn near impossible. 4 years ago Mitt Romney
didn't even try. Will Someone manage it this year?
Governor
Jeb Bush
Not Jeb
Bush who has put together the same team his brother had. So expect
America to invade Belgium if he's ever elected. But of course he wont
be. Being brother to the WORST AMERICAN PRESIDENT in a
generation is a handicap he can't beat.
Governor
Chris Christie
Current
Goveror of New Jersey. Too moderate (sensible) for most Republican
voters, but if by some miracle he is nominated might make a good
opponent for Hillary, and a POSSIBLE GOOD PRESIDENT.
Could be the one to untie the Gordian Knot.
Senator
Ted Cruz
Political
bomb thrower. GOD HELP AMERICA if he's ever elected
Governor
Scott Walker
RIGHT
WING IDEALOG. Current Governor of Wisconson. My Personal Pick for
the nomination. I think he'll win the nomination, run against Hillary
and lose.
Dr Ben
Carsen
GROUND
BREAKING NEUROSURGEON.
Currently polling well. African American. A dark horse.
Governor
Mike Huckabee
Former
Governor of Arkansas, CHRISTIAN ACTIVIST and
FOX NEWS PERSONALITY
Governor Mike Huckabee. He's likable enough but definitely wont be the
nominee. As a Fox News Talking Head, he cant break the Republican
Party free of the echo chamber.
Senator
Marco Rubio
CUBAN
AMERICAN Marco Rubio from
Florida is an impressive orator and could portray a more welcoming
America in the general election. Which is why he won't win the
nomination. An acolyte of Jeb Bush, he's handicapped by Bush's run as
well. Possible untier of that Gordian Knot.
Senator
Rand Paul
SON
OF SENATOR
RON PAUL, Rand has made his
mark as a Libertarian Candidate. He's a bit of a political bomb
thrower and far too unorthodox to be in real contention. Doesnt live
in the echo chamber, therefore has little credibility to those inside
it.
Governor
John Kasich
Current
Governor of Ohio, former member of the House of Representatives and
former FOX NEWS PERSONALITY.
Definitely wont break the echo chamber.
Donald
Trump
Property
magnate and Reality
TV Star Donald Trump is a 21st
Century PT Barnum. The
circus is in town and he is the ringmaaster and head clown. His ties
to the Clinton's will be exploited if he continues to lead in the
polls. He revels in controversy. All the serious candidates are
waiting for him to screw up and burn out.
The
Clown
So
we return to where we began. Donald Trump's popularity is a symptom
of the sickness and depravity of the echo chamber world of right wing
politics in the USA right now. While democrats chuckle to themselves
about how this election is a shoe-in, the rest of America and the
world aren't laughing. Candidates who could challenge the Democrats
and make good Presidents are left by the roadside while morons and
idiots hurl invective around insulting everyone who isn't white,
straight and christian. It's quite the spectacle, but a healthy
democracy needs at least two strong parties. What we have here is one
party who aren't even trying (Clinton again) vs a drunk, disorderly
knife fight. Americas problems that need addressing that don't go away.
They just get shelved as too hard.
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