"It's the end of the world as we know it
    and I feel fine"

On Friday the 20th January Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. On that day will madness commence.
Choosing Donald Trump as President of the United States of America is bizarre.
Trump has campaigned on an openly racist platform, he's has bragged about sexual harrasment, tax evasion and bankruptcy to name just a few. His connections to the Kremlin were deeply troubleing even before the words "golden shower" were introduced and his refusal to separate his business from the business of the Presidency are reason enough for his claim on the Presidency to be forfeit.

Where did it all go Wrong and who's to blame?

1) William Jefferson Clinton

To blame the husband of Trumps opponent might seem counter intuitive, but Bill Clinton was responsible for the repeal of the Glass-Steagal act.

The Glass-Steagal act of 1933 (devised during the great depression to prevent anything like it happening again) basically told banks they had to make a choice. Either they were an investment bank. Economic gamblers who could take risks to maximse profits, or they were a commercial bank whith whom the public could hold their savings. A bank could not be both.
Bill Clinton signed the repeal of the Glass-Steagal act, leading to the retail banks also becoming investment banks. There is debate about whether this caused the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, but most economists believe repealing Glass-Steagal at least exacerbated the crisis.

2) George W Bush
When Al-Qaeda flew those aircraft into the World Trade Centre and
the Pentagon the world changed.

Future historians will look at September 10 2001 as the very zenith of American power and influence. They will mark September 11 2001 as the beginning of the end of the American hegemony.
The sad thing is that it didnt have to be this way.
The Bush administration was populated by ideologically motivated half wits. Men like Paul Wolfowitz and Donald Rumsfeld. 
I hold Bush responsible for two poor decisions.

The first regards the invasion of Afghanistan.Bin Laden's plan was to draw the USA into a protracted war in Afghanistan. It's not for no reason that the country is known as the "graveyard of Empires". Britain and the USSR both suffered humiliating defeats when they brought the great game to Afghanistan. This should have given the Neo-Conservatives pause for thought. Sadly it did not.
 The response to 9/11 was to demand Afghanistan turn over Bin Laden. All in all it was quite a reasonable request. The Taliban (in charge of Afghasnistan at the time) agreed. With one caveat. Bin Laden must be tried in an Islamic court. This was rejected out of hand, mostly because Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et.al were spoiling for a fight.
So a long, bruising, expensive war began in Afghanistan. A war which still continues.
I often wonder if the USA had set up a show trial under the auspices of the UN whether the USA would still be in the dominant position economically it was in 2001.

The second decision was the war in Iraq. The Bush administration chose to wage a second war in Iraq.
After so much blood and treasure was being spent in Afghanistan, the White House chose to start a second war. They claimed Saddam Hussein harboured "Weapons of Mass destruction".
It turns out he didnt. Also Iraq was broken as a nation and may never be put back together. Isis formed out of the ruins of the Sunni faction in Iraq. The war continues in Iraq and has spread to Syria. So I'd call that an unadulterated failure.

3) Alexander Hamilton

Alexander Hamilton was one of the founding fathers of the United States. One of his worst ideas is that a body of learned men should actually vote  for the President and not the nation. He regarded the Electoral College as a way to stop mob rule. However it's effect in the 21'st century has been to hinder the democratic process. In the five elections since 2000 only three have been given to the candidate with the highest popular vote. That's a 40% failure rate of the United States Democratic system.
Hamilton wrote that the electoral college was to weed out demagogues and those under the influence of foreign powers.
In truth no electoral college elector in the modern age could vote against their allocated candidate. So we get the situation we had both in 2000 and again in 2016 where the winner of the popular vote loses the electoral college. The electoral college is a failure. It ensured the very outcome it was intended to avoid.

A Perfect Storm
    History is always more complex than just what's on the page. there are many more issues, but combining these three issues brings us to January 20 2017.

 Clinton laid the foundation of a fundamentally unsound financial system which was unable to deal with the financial shocks of 2007-2008.

Bush bled away blood and treasure in attricional wars which proved both fruitless and useless. Indeed Iraq is far worse than it was on september 10 2001.

Hamilton laid down the undemocratic system which would enable the Demagogue and foreign agent he was afraid of. 

The Voter
    However purile and uneddifying Trump is, people voted for him by the millions. He may have lost the popular vote, but he won in the states that counted.  People are angry. Trump votors (and all Americans) were lied to about going to war, lied to about how safe their financial system was and worried their children were going to have a worse life than their parents.

The Tyranny
    Demagogues have always prospered when democracy fails the people.  Will Trump inaugurate a tyranny on Friday?
I don't know. But I do know I wouldnt want to be an American to find out.

Trump is a Threat

Trump is a Threat

Donald Trump is a massive danger to democracy. First in America. Secondly all around the world. Trump has threatened to deport six million people, all illegal immigrants and close off America to 1.2 Billion people.

He has also threatened to jail his political opponent. He has hit out at what he calls the lying media to a point that he has threatened to sue the New York Times.

The 1^st amendment of the US Constitution is in focus here. It says:

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Trump un the other hand has said:

“One of the things I’m gonna do, and this is only gonna make it tougher for me, and I’ve never said this before, but one of the things I’m gonna do if I win… is I’m gonna open up our libel laws so when they write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them and win lots of money. We’re gonna open up those libel laws.

“With me, they’re not protected, because I’m not like other people…We’re gonna open up those libel laws, folks, and we’re gonna have people sue you like you never get sued before.”

The 1^st amendment garantees the nation's right to a free press. It even mentions the institution of the press by name. So Trump not only is hostile to the media, but hostile to the US Constitution itself.

Trump's supporters have begun to openly cry anti-sematic slogans at his rallies and to call out Lugenpresse at the journalists covering his rallies.

Lugenpresse is what the NAZI's used to decry first the german media and then foreign media, going so far as to outlaw listening to foreign broadcasts. It means lying press and has anti-semetic connotation from the third reich of Adolf Hitler.

Should we really be surprised that a man who considers Hitlers speeches as bedtime reading might emulate the National Socialist playbook.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8?r=US&IR=T

Rounding up 11 Million People

Trump's second most famous policy is to deport all illegal immigrants. The Department of Homeland security believes that there is about 11 million illegal immigrants in the USA.

What sort of an infrstucture is required to rould up 11 million people?

Well for a start you ould need a massive investment in internal security. The FBI or possibly a whole new organisation would need a huge recruitment drive to fill the thousands of agesnts required to root out all illegals. Agents would be required to investigate workplace to workplace and house to house demanding documents from citizens. Citizens online interactions would be monitered to track down any interactions with known illegals. The government would demand access to your house, to your online space and to your life to round up all illegals. In short we're talking about a Gestapo style police State. And the defanged media would be powerless to oppose it.

Housing 11 Million People

It is going to take some time ot process all of the people rounded up before you could send them back to their nation of origin. That would require a series of camps all over the nation on an unprecedented scale. In truth it would dwarf even the Nazi camp program. Millions of people vulnerable people would be held in detention at a time.

What happens next?

What do you think happens when the most powerful nation in the world gathers together it's percieved enemies from within under a police state? Examples from the mid 20^th century come to mind and they are not encouraging.

Jailing Political Opponents

Jailing your political opponents is a time honoured tradition of dictators throught history and today. Today those who oppose Vladimir Putin are deprived of their freedom and if outside of Russian legal means their lives.

Kim Jon Un, Robert Mugabe, The Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran, of today through to Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Pol Pot, Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, of the twentieth century to historical dictators like Napoleon Boneparte and Oliver Cromwell all practiced jailing of enemies. Today Trump threatens Hillary with jail.

Trump is a Threat

If you care about democracy a vote for Trump is not possible. He is a dictator in the making. He has told us how he would govern. Like a dictator. This vote tomorrow might be your last. Vote wisely.

Democratic Primary Season - The Big Test

Democratic Primary Season – The Big Test

So far the Democratic Race of the nomination has provided little of the rancor, tempestuousness or stupidity of the Republican race. This is to be expected. Democratic base voters tend to be better educated, far more mellow and closer to reality than the Republican base.

To explain what I mean by that, just listen to an hour of NPR then an hour of right wing talk radio. The difference is stark. Liberals tend to be attracted to candidates who are conciliatory in their approach and speak in quiet tones. That being said, the malaise that causes the right wing to be attracted to be attracted to candidates like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump is visible if you know where to look.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton held a large lead both in votes and money raised heading into the Iowa caucus', but was knocked off by the insurgent candidate, a fresh faced Senator from Illinois Barack Hussein Obama.

Obama was African American, born in Hawaii to a Kenyan father, he spent time as a child in Indonesia. He spoke in lofty ideals, articulated a far less arrogant foreign policy and seemed to offer an antidote to the backward, expansionist, intellectually stifled GW Bush years.

Voters flocked to the candidate in droves, testing the Clinton campaign in unexpected ways. The Obama campaign had learnt how to use the internet to drive the campaign. This dovetailed with his fresh face and masterful rhetoric. He rode a wave of hope all the way to the White House.

It seemed a new era had dawned in America. Fast forward to 2016 and Obama's hope seems to have been mugged by reality.

Obama provides a template for liberal candidates in America. Liberal voters want hope. They want to believe in something bigger than themselves. Obama provided them with this hope. That's how he won. That's what Bernie Sanders has to do to defeat Hillary Clinton.

Sanders is an interesting character to raise his head in US politics. A lifelong self proclaimed socialist, Sanders taps into the same malaise on the left, that pushes right wingers to follow Trump, Cruz et al.

Sanders' charm as the irritable Jewish grandfather is undeniable. His cut through style seems to say "I don't have time for all that political crap".

Millennials now outnumber baby boomers of voting age. They never experienced the cold war and the "red scare". They don't seem to fear the word "socialist" in quite the same way that baby boomers and gen xers do. Their life experience has been of a dysfunctional capitalist system pushing an expansionist foreign policy that has reaped a crop of massive social inequality, crumbling infrastructure, two wars, and precious little to show for it.

The truth of it is that Sanders is a Democratic Socialist, basically on the same page as Tony Blair was in the UK. In any other nation he would be considered a centrist or centre left at the very most, but for America this is a radical departure from the centre right of Hillary Clinton or Obama and the far right of the warmongering Bush/Cheney years.

Americans appear ready to embrace a new political reality, but Sanders still has an uphill climb. His job as the insurgent candidate is to associate his cut-through style with hope. Eight years of Obama beating his head against the "scorched earth" style of Congress championed by Senator Cruz should have made America much more cynical about "Hope and Change".

Ultimately that's good for Hilary Clinton. Clinton will be viewed as a safe pair of hands to place the Presidency into because the Republicans can't win the presidency while spouting anti Hispanic, anti-immigrant sentiment. The demographics are clear on this point. They were made clear in 2012 by Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. Actually if you remove George Bush's 2000 victory (which you should, the popular vote was won by Al Gore and more people voted for Gore in Florida than Bush), the Republicans have only won one Presidential Election since 1988, that of 2004. That election was special because it happened during a time of war.

After Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are finished with inciting the right, the Republicans will be so toxic in 2016 that no Republican will have a chance.

I don't know who will win the Republican primary in 2016, but it won't matter. That nominee will fail because he/she will be so radioactive in dealing with Trump/Cruz et.al. If it is Trump or Cruz they still won't win.

That leaves Clinton or Sanders. Clinton has to be the favorite, by far, but Sanders can win. The thought of a Sanders win and what the right would make of a self proclaimed socialist in the White House is amusing, given that they went "Ape Shit" over a black man in the oval office.

Republican Primary Season - Like Watching a Train Wreck in Slow Motion

Republican Primary Season – Like watching a Train Wreck in Slow Motion

Something rather bizarre seems to be happening in Republican circles. While Donald Trump continues to suck up all the political oxygen, a couple of weeks out from the Iowa Caucus Ted Cruz is actually leading in Iowa.

Ted Cruz is a ratbag. But he just might be the Republican Party Nominee for President. In his time in the US Senate he has plotted a course to destroy the US Government. Having him in the White House would make for an interesting four years. Disastrous, but interesting.

Why people would vote for Senator Cruz, a man who doesn't seem to want the Federal Government to conduct any business is beyond me, but the thought processes of Republican voters are rarely logical. Despite his denials, Cruz was one of the movers and shakers behind the government shutdown in 2013.

Cruz was born in Canada, a situation which has Obama birthers rushing to explain why Cruz IS eligable to run. Cruz seems to want nothing more than to watch the world burn. He refuses to believe global warming and would bomb the middle east "until the sand glowed".

Cruz doesn't believe in the sciene of Global Warming and now oversees NASA's budget. He is a case of government of the people for the people by the stupid.

Enough words have been expended on Trump, so I won't say anything further here.

Ben Carson is a twit. He seems to think that the pyramids of Giza are grain silo's. He denies evolution for crying out loud. A Neurosurgeon who denies evolution is running some serious cognitive dissonance. He won't explain his thoughts on climate change, basically because he has none. Or at least thats what I infer from this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/ben-carson-climate-change_560d9b3fe4b0dd85030b5354?section=australia

Jeb Bush is still in the race. Those with long memories remember that it was the Supreme Court of Florida, stacked with his appointees that delivered the Presidency to his brother George in 2000. I think that the party feels it owes a debt to Jeb Bush and that for now he is their preffered candidate. However the Republican base don't agree. Do we really need another Bush in the White House? The Republican establishment thnk so, but can see that the Republican base won't vote for another Bush. Nor should they, quite frankly.

John Kasich could be the establishment candidate. Sober and sensible. Everything you need in an establishment candidate. If he can get some attention he could be the one to unite the party establishment with it's base. That's a big "If" though.

Carly Fiorina is a moderate in that she believes the science that climate change is real and believes in "decriminalizing drug addiction and drug use", an admirable position to me, but not to the Republican base. I also believe her gender works against her with the base. She's most likely an also-ran.

Rick Santorum will get the evangelical vote, but has a natural ceiling. I don't think he can be the nominee.

That leads us to Marco Rubio. He's a Jeb Bush acolyte, so you know the Republican establishment will rally around him if Jeb Bush falls. I think he's the man who will accept the nomination and lose to Hillary Clinton or possibly Bernie Sanders.

Tomorrow – The Democrats.

Donald Trump is the worlds greatest Troll by Nate Silver

Donald Trump is the worlds greatest troll by Nate Silver

Republican Presidential Debate Time Is Here!

Why the Republican Party Can't Win

I have a confession to make. I'm a political junkie. I find the world around me and the people in it endlessly fascinating. Trying to understand why our society is the way it is keeps me up at night. Then there are the things that bring me joy. One of those is about to begin.

The debates between candidates for the Republican party nomination begin on August 6^th. It's a circus. It's like watching the a train crash in slow motion. This year we have the clown in chief (Donald Trump) who will be trying to out wacky some of weirdest and wackiest candidates the Grand Old Party (GOP) have ever thrown together.

The contrast between the Republican debates and the Democratic debates is as fascinating as it is informative. Democratic debates are filled with sensible earnest looking people putting on their serious face and explaining how their 4,500 page tax plan is the good for the nation. Republicans on the other hand will just scream that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) who collects tax is in everybody's face and when elected President I'll abolish it. And the crowd goes wild!

As amusing as it is, it's indicative of a larger fact. Republican's cant win. The most obvious reason, is that American demographics have changed and are continuing to change. Since 1992 Republican candidates have legitimately won one election presidential election. That of 2004. The election of 2000, was so close, that it was called before all the votes were counted. It turns out, that after all the votes were counted, Al Gore, not George Bush won the state of Florida and therefore should have been declared president. 2004 was an anomaly due to the Iraq war.

How did it come to this?

America continues to diversify. In the 2012 presidential election 26.3 % of voters were non-white, up 2 % from 2008.. That doesn't sound like much, but consider that Obama won that particular segment by 80% - 17% for Mitt Romney and you can see that the GOP has a real problem. In fact after the 2012 election defeat the Republican National Committee (RNC) postmortem opened with the words:

“The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Sadly nothing has changed since 2012.

Immigration

Latino (or Spanish speaking) voters are the second largest minority in the USA after African Americans. They make up 20 million eligible voters. They tend to be 1^st or 2nd generation immigrants to america. The immigration programme is something they're quite familiar with. When Republican candidates talk about immigration, however they tend to do so in unflattering terms. Such as:

" When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists." - Donald Trump June 2015

Insanity

While it's obvious to anyone that insulting the voters you need for the general election is insane, it has to be done. The reason is that of course anyone running a line that is remotely palatable to voters in the general election simply can't win the Republican Party nomination.

But Why?

I think there are a 3 major reasons for this. The first we'll call the Echo Chamber Effect.

Echo Chamber Effect?

One of the most unexpected effects of the information revolution was the echo chamber effect. People were now free to gain information about the world around them from only the sources they believed in. People no longer sat down together to watch the evening news. News could be had from anywhere and from anyone. People didn't choose the mainstream media anymore, they wanted news they agreed with all the time.

This was the perfect time for Rupert Murdoch to start Fox News. Fox News is the most brazen partisan news organisation there has been, and probably ever will be. Fox News truly lives in an alternate universe where Barack Obama is a communist born in Kenya. They employ circular logic to brainwash viewers in exactly the same way a cult does. Any information (such as this blog) that does not agree with Fox is a product of the evil liberal media. Therefore it is rejected, which feeds the belief in Fox and the conservative media.

Amusingly (and frighteningly) it isn't just voters who become brainwashed by this nonsense. Karl Rove simply refused to believe Obama had been elected in 2012. Why? All the polls pointed to a Romney win. This doesn't make sense. Except it makes perfect sense, because Fox was lying about the polls and had been for months. His meltdown is amusing in a sad kind of way and you can watch it here:

Powerful Republicans are just as likely to fall into this alternate universe as the white working class voters who make up the majority of their constituency. It's an Orwellian place where facts have no meaning, change constantly or are ignored if not helpful to the republican cause. But the biggest problem about the echo chamber, is that Republicans have started to believe their own propaganda.

The Gerrymander Effect?

The USA has no independent umpire when it comes to drawing electoral boundaries. Gerrymandering is drawing the political boundaries for political gain. The original Gerrymander was enacted by Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry in 1812 and looked like a salamander.

What happens is that both parties get together to group all voters of one party together to create a safe seat. Both party's benefit from this practice by reducing the amount of seats "in play" so that finite party resources can be spent on fewer and fewer marginal districts. Unfortunately in the USA today the House of Representatives has extremely few contested districts.

The average Congressman sits in a very safe seat. The public are extremely unlikely to throw him or her out. On the other hand, they must listen very closely to those in their party. If they become unpopular, they will lose the right to stand for their party. Their party who are caught up in this alternate universe where reality and facts do not tread. It leads to Congressman denouncing global warming as a devious plot designed to bring back socialism or whatever claptrap the echo chamber is reverberating with today. I would like to remind you that these people make policy decisions that effect not just America but their footprint echos throughout the 7.3 BILLION humans on planet Earth.

Free Trade Effect

Republican voters in America today tend to be the lesser educated manual laborers. Salt of the Earth people like miners, plumbers and manufacturing workers. These are the people who have suffered from overseas competition. Competition from economies that have far lower wages.. Real wages among the working and middle class in America haven't risen in 40 years.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

It's always during difficult economic times that the far right raises its ugly head. As Americans lives fail to get better, people need someone to blame. According to the right wing eco-chamber it's Obama. But of course it's also immigration.

The Gordian Knot

The American right has tied a Gordian Knot for itself. To break out of the echo chamber is damn near impossible. 4 years ago Mitt Romney didn't even try. Will Someone manage it this year?

Governor Jeb Bush

Not Jeb Bush who has put together the same team his brother had. So expect America to invade Belgium if he's ever elected. But of course he wont be. Being brother to the WORST AMERICAN PRESIDENT in a generation is a handicap he can't beat.

Governor Chris Christie

Current Goveror of New Jersey. Too moderate (sensible) for most Republican voters, but if by some miracle he is nominated might make a good opponent for Hillary, and a POSSIBLE GOOD PRESIDENT. Could be the one to untie the Gordian Knot.

Senator Ted Cruz

Political bomb thrower. GOD HELP AMERICA if he's ever elected

Governor Scott Walker

RIGHT WING IDEALOG. Current Governor of Wisconson. My Personal Pick for the nomination. I think he'll win the nomination, run against Hillary and lose.

Dr Ben Carsen

GROUND BREAKING NEUROSURGEON. Currently polling well. African American. A dark horse.

Governor Mike Huckabee

Former Governor of Arkansas, CHRISTIAN ACTIVIST and FOX NEWS PERSONALITY Governor Mike Huckabee. He's likable enough but definitely wont be the nominee. As a Fox News Talking Head, he cant break the Republican Party free of the echo chamber.

Senator Marco Rubio

CUBAN AMERICAN Marco Rubio from Florida is an impressive orator and could portray a more welcoming America in the general election. Which is why he won't win the nomination. An acolyte of Jeb Bush, he's handicapped by Bush's run as well. Possible untier of that Gordian Knot.

Senator Rand Paul

SON OF SENATOR RON PAUL, Rand has made his mark as a Libertarian Candidate. He's a bit of a political bomb thrower and far too unorthodox to be in real contention. Doesnt live in the echo chamber, therefore has little credibility to those inside it.

Governor John Kasich

Current Governor of Ohio, former member of the House of Representatives and former FOX NEWS PERSONALITY. Definitely wont break the echo chamber.

Donald Trump

Property magnate and Reality TV Star Donald Trump is a 21^st Century PT Barnum. The circus is in town and he is the ringmaaster and head clown. His ties to the Clinton's will be exploited if he continues to lead in the polls. He revels in controversy. All the serious candidates are waiting for him to screw up and burn out.

The Clown

So we return to where we began. Donald Trump's popularity is a symptom of the sickness and depravity of the echo chamber world of right wing politics in the USA right now. While democrats chuckle to themselves about how this election is a shoe-in, the rest of America and the world aren't laughing. Candidates who could challenge the Democrats and make good Presidents are left by the roadside while morons and idiots hurl invective around insulting everyone who isn't white, straight and christian. It's quite the spectacle, but a healthy democracy needs at least two strong parties. What we have here is one party who aren't even trying (Clinton again) vs a drunk, disorderly knife fight. Americas problems that need addressing that don't go away. They just get shelved as too hard.