Democratic
Primary Season – The Big Test
So far the
Democratic Race of the nomination has provided little of the rancor,
tempestuousness or stupidity of the Republican race. This is to be
expected. Democratic base voters tend to be better educated, far more
mellow and closer to reality than the Republican base.
To explain
what I mean by that, just listen to an hour of NPR then an hour of
right wing talk radio. The difference is stark. Liberals tend to be
attracted to candidates who are conciliatory in their approach and
speak in quiet tones. That being said, the malaise that causes the
right wing to be attracted to be attracted to candidates like Ted
Cruz and Donald Trump is visible if you know where to look.
In 2008
Hillary Clinton held a large lead both in votes and money raised
heading into the Iowa caucus', but was knocked off by the insurgent
candidate, a fresh faced Senator from Illinois Barack Hussein Obama.
Obama was
African American, born in Hawaii to a Kenyan father, he spent time as
a child in Indonesia. He spoke in lofty ideals, articulated a far
less arrogant foreign policy and seemed to offer an antidote to the
backward, expansionist, intellectually stifled GW Bush years.
Voters
flocked to the candidate in droves, testing the Clinton campaign in
unexpected ways. The Obama campaign had learnt how to use the
internet to drive the campaign. This dovetailed with his fresh face
and masterful rhetoric. He rode a wave of hope all the way to the
White House.
It seemed a
new era had dawned in America. Fast forward to 2016 and Obama's hope
seems to have been mugged by reality.
Obama
provides a template for liberal candidates in America. Liberal voters
want hope. They want to believe in something bigger than themselves.
Obama provided them with this hope. That's how he won. That's what
Bernie Sanders has to do to defeat Hillary Clinton.
Sanders is
an interesting character to raise his head in US politics. A lifelong
self proclaimed socialist, Sanders taps into the same malaise on the
left, that pushes right wingers to follow Trump, Cruz et al.
Sanders'
charm as the irritable Jewish grandfather is undeniable. His cut
through style seems to say "I don't have time for all that
political crap".
Millennials
now outnumber baby boomers of voting age. They never experienced the
cold war and the "red scare". They don't seem to fear the
word "socialist" in quite the same way that baby boomers
and gen xers do. Their life experience has been of a dysfunctional
capitalist system pushing an expansionist foreign policy that has
reaped a crop of massive social inequality, crumbling infrastructure,
two wars, and precious little to show for it.
The truth
of it is that Sanders is a Democratic Socialist, basically on the
same page as Tony Blair was in the UK. In any other nation he would
be considered a centrist or centre left at the very most, but for
America this is a radical departure from the centre right of Hillary
Clinton or Obama and the far right of the warmongering Bush/Cheney
years.
Americans
appear ready to embrace a new political reality, but Sanders still
has an uphill climb. His job as the insurgent candidate is to
associate his cut-through style with hope. Eight years of Obama
beating his head against the "scorched earth" style of
Congress championed by Senator Cruz should have made America much
more cynical about "Hope and Change".
Ultimately
that's good for Hilary Clinton. Clinton will be viewed as a safe pair
of hands to place the Presidency into because the Republicans can't
win the presidency while spouting anti Hispanic, anti-immigrant
sentiment. The demographics are clear on this point. They were made
clear in 2012 by Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. Actually if you
remove George Bush's 2000 victory (which you should, the popular vote
was won by Al Gore and more people voted for Gore in Florida than
Bush), the Republicans have only won one Presidential Election since
1988, that of 2004. That election was special because it happened during a time of
war.
After
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are finished with inciting the right, the
Republicans will be so toxic in 2016 that no Republican will have a
chance.
I don't
know who will win the Republican primary in 2016, but it won't
matter. That nominee will fail because he/she will be so radioactive
in dealing with Trump/Cruz et.al. If it is Trump or Cruz they still
won't win.
That leaves
Clinton or Sanders. Clinton has to be the favorite, by far, but
Sanders can win. The thought of a Sanders win and what the right
would make of a self proclaimed socialist in the White House is
amusing, given that they went "Ape Shit" over a black man in the oval office.
