Democratic Primary Season - The Big Test

Democratic Primary Season – The Big Test

So far the Democratic Race of the nomination has provided little of the rancor, tempestuousness or stupidity of the Republican race. This is to be expected. Democratic base voters tend to be better educated, far more mellow and closer to reality than the Republican base.

To explain what I mean by that, just listen to an hour of NPR then an hour of right wing talk radio. The difference is stark. Liberals tend to be attracted to candidates who are conciliatory in their approach and speak in quiet tones. That being said, the malaise that causes the right wing to be attracted to be attracted to candidates like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump is visible if you know where to look.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton held a large lead both in votes and money raised heading into the Iowa caucus', but was knocked off by the insurgent candidate, a fresh faced Senator from Illinois Barack Hussein Obama.

Obama was African American, born in Hawaii to a Kenyan father, he spent time as a child in Indonesia. He spoke in lofty ideals, articulated a far less arrogant foreign policy and seemed to offer an antidote to the backward, expansionist, intellectually stifled GW Bush years.

Voters flocked to the candidate in droves, testing the Clinton campaign in unexpected ways. The Obama campaign had learnt how to use the internet to drive the campaign. This dovetailed with his fresh face and masterful rhetoric. He rode a wave of hope all the way to the White House.

It seemed a new era had dawned in America. Fast forward to 2016 and Obama's hope seems to have been mugged by reality.

Obama provides a template for liberal candidates in America. Liberal voters want hope. They want to believe in something bigger than themselves. Obama provided them with this hope. That's how he won. That's what Bernie Sanders has to do to defeat Hillary Clinton.

Sanders is an interesting character to raise his head in US politics. A lifelong self proclaimed socialist, Sanders taps into the same malaise on the left, that pushes right wingers to follow Trump, Cruz et al.

Sanders' charm as the irritable Jewish grandfather is undeniable. His cut through style seems to say "I don't have time for all that political crap".

Millennials now outnumber baby boomers of voting age. They never experienced the cold war and the "red scare". They don't seem to fear the word "socialist" in quite the same way that baby boomers and gen xers do. Their life experience has been of a dysfunctional capitalist system pushing an expansionist foreign policy that has reaped a crop of massive social inequality, crumbling infrastructure, two wars, and precious little to show for it.

The truth of it is that Sanders is a Democratic Socialist, basically on the same page as Tony Blair was in the UK. In any other nation he would be considered a centrist or centre left at the very most, but for America this is a radical departure from the centre right of Hillary Clinton or Obama and the far right of the warmongering Bush/Cheney years.

Americans appear ready to embrace a new political reality, but Sanders still has an uphill climb. His job as the insurgent candidate is to associate his cut-through style with hope. Eight years of Obama beating his head against the "scorched earth" style of Congress championed by Senator Cruz should have made America much more cynical about "Hope and Change".

Ultimately that's good for Hilary Clinton. Clinton will be viewed as a safe pair of hands to place the Presidency into because the Republicans can't win the presidency while spouting anti Hispanic, anti-immigrant sentiment. The demographics are clear on this point. They were made clear in 2012 by Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. Actually if you remove George Bush's 2000 victory (which you should, the popular vote was won by Al Gore and more people voted for Gore in Florida than Bush), the Republicans have only won one Presidential Election since 1988, that of 2004. That election was special because it happened during a time of war.

After Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are finished with inciting the right, the Republicans will be so toxic in 2016 that no Republican will have a chance.

I don't know who will win the Republican primary in 2016, but it won't matter. That nominee will fail because he/she will be so radioactive in dealing with Trump/Cruz et.al. If it is Trump or Cruz they still won't win.

That leaves Clinton or Sanders. Clinton has to be the favorite, by far, but Sanders can win. The thought of a Sanders win and what the right would make of a self proclaimed socialist in the White House is amusing, given that they went "Ape Shit" over a black man in the oval office.