What Now for Hong Kong?

What now for the Hong Kong Democracy Movement?

Hong Kong Democracy Stands at a Crossroads. With it's street protest winding down the Pro Democracy movement in Hong Kong has been bested by the Hong Kong Government. Most of the protesters have gone home. Hong Kong Public Servants are able to get into their workplaces and Businesses are open.

In many ways Hong Kong has returned to “Business as usual”. The protest leaders however have gained one concession from CY Leung. They agreed to talks between the Hong Kong Government and the student movement that started the "umbrella revolution".

China has learned quickly about how to deal with this existential threat to their regime. If these protests had spread to mainland China we could have seen the largest revolution in History.

Beijing has organised counter protests to provoke violence on the streets(no I cant prove that) which nicely muddied the international perception of the rally. CY Leung has barely had to give an inch. Which of course means that Universal Suffrage is still a pipe dream for ordinary Hong Kongers.

China initially dealt with the protests the same way most regimes deal with descent. Tear Gas and Police.

This course was altered quickly when it was seen to be disadvantageous to China's foreign policy to crack down too heavily on these protesters who represented freedom to the outside world.

The decision was clearly made to discredit the protest movement. Firstly thugs were procured to go down to the protest scene to intimidate and provoke protesters. It was winning strategy because to resist the thugs appeared to the media as if the protests were devolving and becoming violent. If the protesters were intimidated some might just go home.

The confidence that the business community had in the protests at the beginning faltered as well. Shutting down one of the great cities of the world took it's an economic toll. So much so that even the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong denounced the protests citing risks to investment and job creation.

The longer the protest went, the better China got at handling it. It is of course very difficult to know who was in charge of the response to the protest, be they from Beijing or Hong Kong, but one has to admire the craft of spin and manipulation on display over the last week.

It's the next few years though that will develop the legacy of these protests for Hong Kong and China in general. I suspect it is unlikely that the Hong Kong Government will accede to free and fair elections in 2017. That means it's most likely that tensions will continue to simmer away until another eruption. It;'s important to remember that these people are fighting for something that we take for granted in Western Countries. The right to free and fair elections.

Whatever the outcome Good Luck Hong Kong!

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