Putin and Ukraine - Why are we having this war?

Who is Vladimir Putin and why is he Causing trouble in the Ukraine?

Former KGB Operative

Its true, Vladimir Putin is an ex KGB operative. Not only that, he says he always wanted to join the KGB from a young age. He himself has even said, that there is no such thing as a former KGB operative. But there's more to that story.

KGB in the 80's?

We have a malformed view of the KGB in the west. We remember a powerful, all knowing group of spies who we were told was capable if infiltrating our most secret areas. The truth was less impressive. Most of the KGB's success in the West came from “Walk ins” people who came to them,not the other way around. By Putin's time in the 80's the KGB had become a vast bureaucracy, where hundreds of thousands of operatives wrote thousands of reports that were never read by anyone.

This was so dangerous that it almost brought about a Nuclear Exchange in 1983. KGB analysts (falling completely for Ronald Reagan's Bad Cop routine) judged that he was a man capable of launching a first strike Nuclear War. The KGB were tasked with uncovering the evidence of when this strike would take place.

Agents dutifully reported back routine military activity and their analysis that the west did not intend to launch. The military activity was noted, but the crucial analysis was not. The KGB were quite shocked when Nuclear Missiles didn't fall from the heavens.

Vladimir Putin - Underachieving KGB Man

Into this mess we place Vladimir Putin. Putin was stationed in Dresden in East Germany. Dresden was a backwater as far as the KGB were concerned. Putin focussed on the local University students, hoping that they might have friends in East Berlin, hoping that those friends might have contacts in the west. Being 3 steps removed might have some advantages but the greatest work he seems to have done there at Dresden was to buy an unclassified US Army Manual for $700. Hardly future Head of State material.

Putin in KGB Uniform

Boris Yeltsin Anoints a Successor

On the 9^th of August 1999 Boris Yeltsin fired his Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin, appointed Vladimir Putin in his place and expressed the hope that Putin would succeed him as President. Putin seemingly had come from nowhere. It seems likely that Yeltsin's advisors believed Putin was incompetent and uncharismatic. In short he was controllable. This now seems to have been extremely short sighted.

 

Yeltsin, Putin and the Patriach

Putin Surprises Everyone

Russia in the 1990's was a free for all. The Privatisation of the State Economy resulted in the creation of some of the worlds richest men. This was seen by many Russians as pure theft. Putin took a hard line with these Oligarchs. His imprisoning of Russia's richest man Michail Khodorkovsky sent a message to all the Oligarchs that they did not want to make an enemy of Mr Putin. Putin's treatment of the elite was wildly popular in a Russia reeling from so much change so fast.

Next he launched a popular war on Chechnya. The Russian people began to feel safe under Mr Putin.

Dismantling Democracy

There is an unspoken deal between Governments and their people. As long as the peoples lives are improving, the government can has a black cheque to do whatever it wants. The Deal fails when the Government stops fulfilling it's side of the bargain. After the roller coaster ride of the 1990's, the Russian people were happy to have the good times back. They stood by and watched as Putin uprooted the disorienting Yeltsin system to implement something more stable which just happened to put all that power under Putin's control.

It's the Economy Stupid

The 2000's brought with it rising oil and energy prices. A lesser known fact is that Russia actually exports more oil than any other nation on Earth. One side effect of the massive growth of China coupled with the war in Iraq is that Russia experienced a resources boom. What was a weak and divided nation became strong again, unified under the rule of Mr Putin.

Global Downturn

Of course it couldn't last. As the price of oil fell the Russian people began to demand fair elections. In Late 2011 protesters began to take to the streets demanding an annulment of the 2011 election and indictment of the leader of the Central Election Commission. Putin's reaction was to suppress this movement and to crack down hard. 

Don't Panic

It's hard to uncover what is happening inside the Russian Government under Putin, but one thing seems clear, Putin was afraid.

It shouldn't be surprising that the one thing that terrifies a dictator more than anything else is an angry crowd, yet most commentators were shocked at the level of fear inside the Kremlin which was caused by only 30,000 or so protesters on the street. 

We Need an Enemy

A way was found to deflect the frustration of the populace. It is the same solution that dictators the world over use time and time again. He claimed that Russia was being attacked by enemies without and harboured enemies within who consorted with those enemies.

There's going to be a Pussy Riot!

The protesters themes of greater openness in government, rights for women and the LGBT community didn't go unnoticed. Here was the enemy within and without that Putin needed. Within Russia anyone advocating for the Feminist/LGBT agenda was branded an enemy of the natural order of things.

The Enemy without is of course the West. We who have submitted to the gay agenda, we have turned our backs on the natural order of things and want to bring our brand of HOMOFASCISM to Russia. The West that must be resisted at all cost to save civilisation as we know it. (I know it sounds ridiculous but most propaganda does outside of its original context).

The Protest Band Pussy Riot

Which Brings us to Ukraine

Ukraine is a nation which can be likened to a tidal island. When the power of Russia is strong, Ukraine is inundated and disappears for decades. Then when the tide goes out Ukraine is uncovered as an independent nation. Russia's tide is rising again, however this time Russia has a rival. 

Ukraine looks West

The European Union exerts a powerful influence upon Eastern Europe. Many people see the high standards of living enjoyed in western nations and ask “why can't we have that?” For politicians in nations such as Ukraine, European integration is popular. It wins votes.

But before economic Integration comes military integration in the form of NATO membership. In 2008 Ukraine began the long Application process.

The Homofascists are Encircling Us!

Many Russians feel that Ukraine is Russian and belongs to Russia. The have a shared history and many shared experiences. Therefore it came as a great shock and trauma for the Russian nation that Ukraine might re-orient itself westward. In accordance with the propaganda the only explanation is that the Homofascists have infiltrated Ukrainian society and corrupted it. 

A Real Man Stands Up To Be Counted

Flying in the face of this “corrosive” influence is President Putin who annexed Crimea (majority good ethnic Russian citizens) to save them from the Homofascists. This act was in violation of International Law.

Definitely not Gay?

Why Are We Having this War Again?

In short we're having this war because Vladimir Putin is terrified of mass protests. He needs to assert to the Russian people that he a strong leader and can save the nation from threats within and without. The conflation of the two threats into the gay agenda means he can funnel foreign policy and domestic persecution into the one narrative of saving civilization from itself.

Where do we go from here?

The west has clearly signalled that it wont go to war over the Ukraine although the Australian Prime Minister has promised to physically assault Mr Putin the next time the two leaders meet.

Putin has placed himself in a position where it looks that he is unlikely to back down. So far the Russian people are not paying any price for his invasion of Ukrainian territory. He has kept his moves measured and incremental. The West has placed sanctions on members of the Russian regime, but its difficult to see anything changing.

Putin on the other hand has every reason to ratchet up the pressure on Ukraine and the West. At home he is seen as a hero standing up for natural values fighting off the Homofascist western oppressors. He does have a difficult balancing act however. The catalyst for all this was declining living standards. If the Russian people see the war in Ukraine has bringing down living standards in their nation, they may return to the streets and nothing horrifies a dictator more than that.